Golf Croquet Handicapping

Mazda

Croquet Queensland has a volunteer (thankyou Jenee) who is looking at helping clubs with this important task. Jenee has just taken on this role and is currently working on the process that we’ll adopt.

JMol

Correct handicaps are important to ensure players are able to compete fairly in all club, state and national competitions. It all starts at club level as this is the place where a new player is introduced to the sport of croquet and should be the stepping stone for a player to advance their skill to compete to the best of their ability.
A number of documents will be made available on the Croquet Queensland website to assist clubs in assessing the handicap of a new player and reassessing where necessary, the handicap of an existing player who hasn't played sufficient competition games to have their handicap and index set by the AHS (Automatic Handicap System).
By endeavouring to assist clubs in setting and maintaining fair handicaps outside the AHS, all players will benefit. Members throughout Qld will be able to visit any other club with the assurance they can participate in club play at their level.
Clubs also need to adapt to the change that members participate in club games rather than social play. Social play suggests "anything goes" but our sport does have rules to ensure a fair game for all players so a change in name to club days or club games is important.
Another change, which I would welcome feedback on, is that Code Captains or those who organise the Club games should pair players and opponents with similar handicaps. This has many benefits where new players to the sport are not intimidated by a player with a much lower handicap allowing them to fully enjoy the game with their peers. It also allows players who are wanting to improve their abilities to be challenged by another player of a similar handicap whose handicap has been set by the AHS.
Clubs should not feel intimidated by any of these new ideas as they will be provided with support and all feedback will be treated with respect.

Hobbs

JMol you have made a lot of good points in your discussion. It seems to me the handicap system “sort of works” but not quite! I must agree with the point re club games and the lack of value of the high/low match ups.
What is the correlation between WCF DG ratings and handicaps given doubles games are not used across both, as well as events I believe with more than 50% of participants from one club, eg Pennants. It seems Association and ricochet don’t record doubles games on the “card” which results in the handicap of an individual not being skewed by the results of doubles games !!
With the mathematical validity of the system scrutinised in the article, it requires the player to enter competitive events to trigger up or down - for players that play the odd Pennants game or a regional event every now - what does a 9 player look like - a 4 player - a 12 player - I get the comment that any player has a range of skills on any one day and in any one game for that matter ???

Mazda

Plan is to run a pilot on handicapping at Bribie and East Brisbane to see if any adjustments to the process are needed. When that pilot is completed in the next couple of weeks, the docs will go to CAQ for sign off and distribution.

pennyv

I would like to suggest that we stop formally recording, in a central record, when player indexes change. Would this cause mayhem?

JMol

The index is important as it is tied to your handicap. You really can’t have one without the other and we do need a central record as not all players have a world ranking.

pennyv

JMol thanks JMol - not saying we ditch indexes - they are a very important part of the handicapping process - just querying whether every tiny index change needs to be reported to CAQ for updating the immediately out of date public list of player handicap data.

JMol

pennyv
Hi Penny, yes all changes should be made. I have requested that it be done by the state handicapper but no luck so far.

CroquetClaude

Following this with interest. Is there a document that explains how the AHS works in practice? I can find bits and pieces but nothing that lays out the full process from game result to updated index.

Would be useful to have that written down completely so I can understand it when referenced.

CroquetWade

CroquetClaude it is the current qld system, as you know it. the one that the handicap cards have on them.

JMol

CroquetClaude
Yes there are now documents available but not yet uploaded to CQ.
I am trying to get permission to run workshops so as many people as possible have the chance to understand the process.

ArthurTCC

From a Updting Point of view, What about putting the Handicap Sheet in the Cloud and then have Captians/tournament managers log in and add a form that updates the handicap sheet data? Would eliminate emails to the handicpper and work for the handiciapper?

CroquetClaude

I tested the AHS against Queensland's actual data -- 717 GC handicap records from the CAQ database -- to see if the system is operating as designed. It is. The distribution follows a bell curve, the trigger point spacing is doing what it should, and the mechanics are sound for this population.

The more important finding is that no system -- this one or any replacement -- will stop the complaints. People are complaining about maths, and maths doesn't care. A handicap measures a point. People complain about the range -- the natural statistical variability in human play. Unless you'd like to play robots? I can learn. I promise to play consistently every. single. time.

Take two handicap 9s. On a given Tuesday, one plays like a 6 and the other plays like a 12. Next week, they swap. Both their handicaps are correct -- they're just performing at different points in their natural range. That variability is highest in the mid-range where 90% of Queensland's players sit. In any tournament of reasonable size, results that look like wrong handicaps are statistically guaranteed. That's not a broken system. That's the sport.

@JMol -- pairing by similar handicaps at club level makes sense, but this variability means clubs shouldn't read too much into results that look lopsided between players on similar numbers. It's going to happen, and it's normal.

@pennyv -- on whether every tiny index change needs reporting to CAQ: the analysis shows that mid-range index movements are mostly noise. The trigger spacing is deliberately narrow there, so indexes bounce around frequently without necessarily meaning a player's ability has changed. Your instinct is right -- it's worth questioning what value the constantly out-of-date public list adds.

On divisions -- the data supports moving from three to four. Right now 55% of all players land in Division 3. Rebalancing gives: Div 1 (5 and below), Div 2 (6-8), Div 3 (9-10), Div 4 (11+). In practice Division 4 is close to unused -- those players are in the database but rarely enter divisional events. For clubs that can't fill four brackets, 1+2 becomes "Open" and 3+4 becomes "Social," which is how most clubs already think about it.

Full report: Are Queensland's Handicaps Working? (PDF)

CroquetWade

Nothing special is happening. The vast majority of the time its is the randomness of the statistics that's happening.

Every stinker has a blinder.

ill never let addison forget and ill never tire of reminiscing with jill @eildon about that time she bested him.

CroquetWade

Hobbs

With the mathematical validity of the system scrutinised in the article, it requires the player to enter competitive events to trigger up or down

Just to confirm the conclusion was that then handicap system's modelling is excellent and our data validates that it achieves what its aims are.

Handicaps are nothing to do with the world rankings. This is a separate system that CAQ decides to implement. You are correct about different things for eligibility for world rankings. For Qld handicaps there are no requirements. They can be used on club days if wanted.

You make a good point about what does a 5 look like or a 9 look like. The only way is for people to have more data points and they'll find where they will be. Someone who winning by superior skill and not variable noise will move up the divisions quickly, as designed.

But I really wanted to lay down a simple illustration the point vs range.

All the discussions need to be framed within this truth.

Handicap point vs range

A handicap 7 might play like a 5 or a 9 on any given day depending on form, luck, and all the variabilities of the game. That range is what gets complained about.

Take a handicap 4 playing the 7 above. The 4's range on a day is roughly 2 to 6. The 7's range is roughly 5 to 9.

https://tv.croquetwade.com/download/web-videos/01b72dec-1408-4064-8eb9-5bf15f85acf9-1080.mp4

https://tv.croquetwade.com/w/1dhD4z86xk19rmptRhR9pt

Everyone says "the handicaps are wrong" but both players were inside their normal range.

Doubles should be included as more games increases accuracy

As a former player I don't want my skills ruined by my inferior partner either 😛.

However as a maths person i want the maximum sample size because that increases accuracy of the measurement. There is no evidence that double skews results and more data is certainly better, so there is every maths reason to include them.

In fact excluding doubles would reduce the accuracy of the system. AC suffers from low games even more than GC, so they should consider adding doubles to get more data into that system, if the systems should match.

This is a minor debate maths wise. There is no mathematical problem with removing doubles if it was decided to include singles only games.

Conclusion

The really important thing for people to understand is what they observe at pennants matches when a 7 beats a 4 is the variability of the game; a sporting upset.

Whoever built the system did a good job and it is working well.

It operates as well as it ever will. The reason why the system will seem like 'this isn't right' no matter the proposal is because no system will ever be correct. This is as near close as you will get when measuring ranges with points.

We could calculate standard deviations and map everyone to get an expected value which attempts to internalise the currently unaccounted for variability. But really, this is pennant croquet. Not needed.

Just go out and enjoy the game, the upsets. The challenges. Scraping a win when you play badly. Having a blinder of a day where everything sailed through the hoop...or the day nothing goes right.

Hobbs

CroquetWade
Thank you for you comments.
It seems to me that playing a shot in the range of two handicaps below my actual handicap is more likely to be the work of the “croquet gods” - it’s probably not repeatable - just one of those results that yes, we all have every now and then - in the same way as the ball does a dance in the hoop and gets spat out!
The variables are unlimited but have I played like the lower handicap throughout the game - nah!
I wonder the reason why WCF doesn’t include doubles in the rankings ? To me it seems a truer reflection of an individuals play - regardless of the mathematics!

Hobbs

CroquetWade yes I can see from your article that the handicap system works - that is excellent!
Like any system, the integrity of the application of the system needs some consistency - is a 9 at club A similar to a 9 at club B.

ArthurTCC

CroquetWade Well done to you and your Data Man for the research done. I also loved the video, really explained it well. I am only a very small sample basically playing 6 competition (pennants) games a year at a 10. For 2 years people would some times say I should be an 8, but my hdcp was still a 10. You win some, you lose some. In my 3rd year I have progessed to a 9. My thinking is that yes I had the shots at times to play as an 8, it is just that I played more Consistenly. I believe your research hits the nail on head. I just have to learn how to play like a 7 and then put some consistency to it! I do believe the System works.

CroquetWade

Hobbs

Like any system, the integrity of the application of the system needs some consistency - is a 9 at club A similar to a 9 at club B.

Even between states. I'd estimate that Qld players are probably 1-2 handicaps lower than a similar skilled NSW player.

I think this is designed in England, where they have a lot more cross play between regions. Ideally we'd like to play other states more often, and that would fix up the levels mathematically. However interstate play doesn't occur all that often.

Take that and it applies to clubs and regions. The cross play between Brisbane and the South East and other regions is low. Only 2 elite players come from outside the south east. So it could be that regional players are too low compared to South East.

But the way to solve that is to have more cross regional play. To me the effort would be better spent in organising a proper Qld Open where each regionional region plays qualifiers and their winners get brought to SEQ to play.

More gala days/ Windsor Brooches. More clubs inviting other clubs to play and using cards in friendship competitions/days. [future me edit: recind gala days, theyre fun; remainder of point stands]

I think if effort goes to enjoying the game and enjoying it more often, we will see this go into the background. There's plenty more productive ways to spend all the hours of discussion about a good system modelling imperfect humans.

...btw- thanks for the convo Hobbs 🙂

CroquetWade

Hobbs It seems to me that playing a shot in the range of two handicaps below my actual handicap is more likely to be the work of the “croquet gods” - it’s probably not repeatable - just one of those results that yes, we all have every now and then - in the same way as the ball does a dance in the hoop and gets spat out!

Exactly right! When someone says they have no clue when I talk about standard deviations or bell curves, I'll point out this paragraph. Cause youve described the frustration of variability.

Chin up though. When nothing is going your way, it isn't you its the maths! You are fighting both your opponent PLUS the variability of luck, the lawn and your sleep the night before!

Lovej

CroquetWade what a load of hogs wash! Friendship days/gala days are for players to enjoy a competition without the burden of losing index points… these are fun days so stop complicating the game.