A Record El Nino and Your Courts

The Bureau of Meteorology's latest ENSO update is out. Issued 11 August 2026, it confirms a strong El Niño. Firmly established. Still intensifying, too, against record-warm global sea temperatures.

This isn't a distant forecast anymore. It's happening now.

Look at the numbers. The Niño 3.4 index sat at +2.20°C for the week to 9 August. That's well past the +0.80°C threshold that defines an El Niño. The Southern Oscillation Index's 30-day value to 8 August was -25.6. July's average of -29.1 was the most negative July on record.

BOM's models have the tropical Pacific warming right through spring. The event is expected to run into autumn 2027. Sea temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region may peak higher than anything recorded since 1950. Upper-ocean heat in July was already the highest for any month since 1979. Meteorologist Tom Saunders told ABC News some models put the peak around +3.5°C by mid-to-late spring. The previous record was +2.65°C.

For your club, that means below-average rainfall is likely across eastern and southern Australia from August to October, with warmer days and nights on top. Spring 2026 could turn out to be Australia's hottest on record, modelling suggests. Up to 2°C above the 1961-1990 baseline. Rainfall tends to recover by January. The heat usually lingers past it. Your club is looking down the barrel of a genuinely hot summer.

A warning in August sharpens why. ABC News reported on 19 August that soil moisture deficits have already expanded across eastern Australia, South-east Queensland included. The national fire authority's seasonal outlook now names South-east Queensland as one of the regions facing a higher chance of fires this spring.

Fire scientist Professor David Bowman's warning is worth sitting with. Run a hot, dry spring into a summer of flash droughts, on top of an El Niño like this, and he says "we can switch up landscapes into extraordinarily dangerous conditions" wherever fuel has built up.

Keep it in perspective, though. A record El Niño doesn't automatically mean a repeat of the 2019-20 Black Summer. Most of the nation isn't already deep in a long drought. What's changed is the risk, not the certainty. Higher, not locked in.

For your court, the danger is cumulative. Active couch needs roughly 25mm of water a week to stay playable through a dry season. Run a hot, dry spring straight into that season and the stress compounds. Visible stress can show within 10 to 14 days on clay-loam profiles, sooner still on sandy coastal soils. Let water levels drop too far and hoop holes stop healing cleanly. Sandy soils can turn hydrophobic, shedding water instead of holding it.

The sensible move is preparation, not panic. Get your watering hardware ready. Get your lawn resilient. Do both before the real heat arrives. Two guides will help your committee do exactly that:

• Is your water system ready for summer?
• Getting the lawn through a hot, dry summer

Let us know in the comments how your own courts are tracking this year.